So according to hitsdailydouble.com which is pretty much the preeminent and almost only authority on album sales; this weeks hip hop releases are predicted as follows (based on first day estimates):
Kanye West Yeezus: 375-400k
J.Cole Born Sinner: 290-315k
Mac Miller Watching Movies With The Sound Off: 95-100k
Now bear in mind these are estimates, which as of late have often been a decent amount less than what the final #’s end up.
To me the biggest takeaway is how low Kanye’s sales are predicted to be. Industry estimates were in the 500k range, which frankly i thought was an intentional low ball because of the “F the system ” nature of Yeezus’s lead up and release. I figured between the past weeks feverish hype for Yeezus as well as the news over the weekend of Kanye and Kim Kardashian’s baby being born, pointed to the album over achieving sales wise. Now it’s very possible that Kanye’s very different approach to the album release could also have an effect on the predicting of sales, especially considering the no pre order element of Yeezus. But Hits Daily Double is too good not to factor that in.
The other takeaway is how well Cole’s Born Sinner is selling. Although not an unbelievable amount more than I thought (210-230k) his potential #’s would make his album this years 4th best release,with Timberlakes 20/20, West’s Yeezus and Daft Punks R.A.M being the top 3. Not bad company for young Jermaine.
If these numbers hold true the implications are interesting. To be fair I think Yeezus’s very good reviews and somewhat surprise element to many casual fans will lead to it having good and consistent sales for weeks to come.
The information is especially relevant to Jay-Z who seems on pace to have an even less traditional rollout for his album Magna Carta Holy Grail (he already has Kanye beat on the shortness between announcement to release date). The numbers really reinforce something I had immediately thought; why wouldn’t Jay-Z wait till at least today (6/19) to announce his album release. Stay tuned updates will be made to this post as the week goes on.